Food insecurity only one generation away

The Guardian Newspaper recently did a series of articles on how global climate change is going to affect food supplies around the world in the coming years. The results were dramatic, and quite frightening.
The temperature increase that The Guardian used as a comparison point was 2 C. That is a conservative estimate of future climate change. Many scientists claim that even if greenhouse gasses were severely reduced starting today, the planet will still reach the 2 C increase. If nothing is done, some predict global temperature increases as high as 3.5 C.
Which means, as is well documented, dire environmental consequences, changes in weather patterns, more dramatic storms and sea level rises that may flood low-lying regions of the globe.
The Guardian overlooked those consequences to focus on food production and food security.
The main conclusion from the paper’s examination of food systems under a two degree global temperature increase is that food production around the world will be severely impacted.
Crop production in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, will drop by up to 22 per cent.
Australia, faced with more droughts, will see its agricultural production decrease significantly. The number of malnourished children in southeast Asia will increase by nine million or more. America will see huge decreases in agriculture in some parts of the country, especially California, as water shortages, droughts and shifting climate change growing patterns. Even Russia, despite seeing an increased temperature and longer growing season, is expected to produce less food as forest fires burn longer and larger in a warmer northern ecosystem.
The Guardian did find that temperature increases helped agriculture in some places. Northern Europe, for example, including England, will be able to grow a much larger range of crops and produce more food.
While Canada was not examined by the The Guardian, it is possible to make some predictions based on other regions around the world. An increased growing season as a result of climate change might make it easier to grow food in northern Ontario. But Canada might also fall into the Russian category, where increased forest fires outweigh any benefit of a warmer
temperatures on growing season.
Overall the impact of climate change on the global food supply was very clear. As food production becomes much more difficult, existing food systems will have a much harder time feeding all the people on the planet.
Even more alarming, these changes are happening fast. Chances are good that by 2030 global temperatures will have risen 2 C. The food shortage predictions made by The Guardian are likely to be a reality, if not in our lifetimes, surely in our children’s lifetimes.
That is why efforts aimed at creating sustainable local food systems in communities across the country are so valuable, and so inspiring. From Wapekeka’s gardens to Aroland’s greenhouses, from the community food initiative in Fort Albany to KI’s efforts at local food production, northern Ontario communities are taking big strides in creating small-scale food systems.
Nearly all of these projects are being done with little money and a lot of hard work by people in the communities. The projects, as varied as they are, all intend to help people eat healthy, engage community members in working together to produce food, and bring back the self-sustaining ways of the past. But what they are also doing is planting the seeds of local food systems – so that if the dire predictions of global food scarcities do come to pass, northern communities are not dependent on an insecure global food system.
Of course agriculture is not the only solution towards food security. Wild game and fish and forest gathering continue to be staples of northern diets, and will need to be kept up if sustainable food systems are to be created.
But with growing populations in nearly all the communities, additional food resources will be needed. That is where agriculture can play a big role, especially in the form of community gardens, greenhouses and individuals growing their own food.
Anishinawbe people in northern Ontario have had self-sufficient food systems since time immemorial. It has only been a relatively short period since the communities tied into the global food system.
Initiatives such as those profiled in Wawatay this week are good steps towards re-building self-sustainable food systems. Other communities, First Nations organizations and both the federal and provincial governments should take note. Now is the time to start planning for the future. Global food insecurity may be only one generation away.